Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are particularly impacted because both countries produce 70% of the world’s cocoa. Cocoa stands are ageing, and their rehabilitation is jeopardised by declining soil fertility and CSSV—a deadly disease that causes swelling of cocoa branches. Moreover, climate change will likely give rise to droughts that will weaken unshaded cocoa farming systems. The latter have expanded at the expense of forested areas, whereas efforts to preserve trees when setting up cocoa farms could generate ecological services beneficial to cocoa farming.

The lack of sustainability of the current cocoa farming model—with little or no shade—is hence likely to impact cocoa yields and in turn cocoa farmers’ income. This will increase the vulnerability of farms dependent on this crop.